TMH CEO: ‘This is deadly serious’

Posted on April 10, 2020

By CAITLYN BURCHETT / Staff Writer

Taylor County held steady at just one positive coronavirus case, as of the Florida Department of Health’s (DOH) midday update Thursday. However, a panel of Tallahassee Memorial Hospital (TMH) professionals predict the pandemic is far from over, estimating the impact from the virus will not peak until late May or June.

TMH – a partner of Doctors’ Memorial Hospital – held a press conference Thursday, to explain the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) model utilized to forecast the peak, as well as area hospitals’ needs.

The best-case scenario, which takes into account school closings, non-essential business closings and social distancing, predicts tha- hospital admissions in the Big Bend Region will peak at 227 around the middle of June. While the best-case scenario requires more time to flatten the curve and achieve high compliance regarding social distancing guidelines, this scenario forecasts 68 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and 45 ventilated admissions.

Alternatively, TMH experts say the most likely scenario will result in hospital admissions peaking at 361 in late May, with 90 ICU admissions and 60 ventilated admissions.

“Hopefully, if everyone does what they are supposed to do, we will see the curve flatten and it will be less severe than what we just described here,” TMH Vice President and Chief Clinical Officer Ryan Smith said.

As Florida’s confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases continue to climb, TMH says the Big Bend area is currently on track for the alternative scenario.

Utilizing geo-mapping to track social movement in the area, Taylor County has been graded a C- (on a scale of A to F) on how well the county is following social distancing guidelines. Neighboring counties include: Lafayette with a B-, Dixie with a B-, Madison with a C and Jefferson with a C.

However, according to the CHIME model, continuing the closing of schools and non-essential businesses, as well as adhering to social distancing guidelines, reduces social contact by 31 percent and has the potential to reduce the number of critical coronavirus cases by 65 percent.

“We need to continue to flatten the curve. The model does not have all the variables in it, but it does show what will happen if we have a major break out,” TMH President & CEO Mark O’Bryant said. “This is not a game. This is deadly serious.”

According to figures released by the DOH at 11 a.m. yesterday, 79 people in Taylor County had been tested for the virus – with 78 negatives and one positive.

All four of Taylor County’s direct neighbors — Dixie Jefferson, Lafayette and Madison — have also had at least one confirmed case.  Lafayette most recently confirmed one positive coronavirus case. Lafayette has tested 33 people. In Dixie, 87 people had been tested, with just one positive test. To date, Jefferson has tested 52 people, yielding eight confirmed cases.

With 12 positive cases, Madison has the highest infection rate of Taylor’s direct neighbors. Madison has tested 73 people.

“Even though our numbers look great, that is a fragile number,” O’Bryant said.

TMH officials are continuing to engage with outlying counties, such as DMH, to help manage COVID-19 prevention and care.

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